Australia: number of owner occupier housing finance approvals ex refi down 2.8%, value of investor loan approvals ex refi down 2.7%.
Housing finance approvals weakened again in March more than reversing a modest gain in Feb, the update weaker than expected.
The total number of owner occupier loan approvals ex refi declined 2.8%mth vs consensus forecasts of a 0.5% decline. That followed a 0.5% rise in Feb and sharp declines over the second half of 2018, monthly moves running at –1.5%. Whereas the Feb report had suggested markets were finding a base, the March update clearly undermines that view. Approvals are down 13.8%yr and despite the Feb improvement have continued to trace a 13% annualised pace of decline over the first three months of the year.
The value of investor loans ex refi fell 1.5%mth, coming off a 0.9% decline in Feb, weak though an improvement on the average declines of 3.6%mth over the previous six months.
The combined total value of housing finance approvals across both owner occupier and investor segments (and excluding refi) fell 3.2%mth, more than reversing a 2% gain in Feb to be down 18.4%yr.
Overall, the March update was disappointing given the improved tone from auction market activity and an apparent slowing in price declines in recent months. That said, monthly data can be very uneven so the moderation, if genuine, may take time to show through more clearly in the finance data.
Details:
Owner–occupiers (no.) -2.5%mth, -11.3%yr
– ex-financing (no.) -2.8%mth, -13.8%yr
Construction of dwellings (no.) 0.1%mth, -1.8%yr
Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.) -4.7%mth, -33.5%yr
Value of loans:
Owner-occupiers ($bn) -2.6%mth, -12.4%yr
Investors ($bn) -1.5%mth, -22.8%yr
Total ($bn) -2.3%mth, -15.5%yr
Total ex refi ($bn) -3.2%mth, -18.4%yr
