EUR/USD stayed in consolidation above 1.1111 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral for more consolidation first. Stronger rise and break of 1.1264 cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501
