AUD/USD has ticked higher in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7003, up 0.08% on the day. On the fundamentals front, there are no Australian releases. China posted a trade surplus of 94 billion yuan ($13.8 billion), in April, well short of the forecast of 235 billion yuan ($33.7 billion). On Wednesday, Chinese CPI is projected to improve to 2.5% in April. In the U.S., there are no key events until Thursday, with the release of producer price index reports and unemployment claims. The RBA issues its monetary policy statement, which is released quarterly.
The trade war between the U.S. and China has taken a heavy toll on the Chinese economy. China’s trade surplus fell sharply in April, dropping from 221 billion yuan to 94 billion ($32.6 billion to $13.8 billion). As well, Chinese exports declined 2.7% in April, on a year-to year basis. This was a sharper drop than the estimate of a 2.3% decline. A slowdown in China has damaged the Australian economy, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner.
The RBA held the course on Tuesday, surprising the markets, which had expected the bank to cut rates to 1.25%. The markets had priced in a rate cut at close to 50%, so the decision to hold rates boosted the Aussie close to 1.0%. However, the currency was unable to consolidate and gave up most of these gains in European trade. Despite a slowdown in economic activity and weak inflation, the RBA is sticking to its wait-and-see stance, hopeful that the economy will find its feet without the help of a rate cut.
