EUR/GBP dropped sharply to as low as 0.8497 last week. The downside acceleration suggests that consolidation from 0.8472 has completed with three waves to 0.8681, after failing to sustain above 55 day EMA. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 0.8472 low first. Break will resume fall from 0.9101 and target 61.8% projection of 0.9101 to 0.8472 from 0.8681 at 0.8292 next. On the upside, above 0.8568 minor resistance will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9306 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it’s extending through 0.8312 support towards 50% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8121. We’ll look for strong support around there to contain downside to complete the correction. But for now, break of 0.8681 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120 holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
