The USD steadied against its counterparts on Friday and during today’s Asian session as the markets prepare for the Fed’s interest rate decision. The boost provided by the unexpectedly high acceleration of the US GDP, proved to be short-lived and could puzzle analysts in the coming days. The US-Japanese trade talks, seem to be on a good way as US president Trump stated that he sees the possibility for a deal by May. Also hopes seem to be running high for the next round of the US-Sino negotiations which are to restart on the 30th of April. We could see the USD maintain a sideways movement unless there are surprises in the greenback’s fundamentals. Also some volatility could be expected from today’s financial releases. EUR/USD maintained mainly a sideways movement on Friday and during today’s Asian session, as it remained between the 1.1175 (R1) resistance line and the 1.1125 (S1) support line. We could see the pair maintaining that movement, yet it should be noted that the pair could prove sensitive to today’s financial releases which could affect both sides of the pair. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market we could see it breaking the 1.1125 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1075 (S2) support level. Should the pair find extensive buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the 1.1175 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1220 (R2) resistance level.
Oil fell after Trump urged OPEC for greater output
Oil prices tumbled on Friday as US president Trump demanded that OPEC raises its output levels, in order to counterbalance the impact of US sanctions on Iran. The US president told reporters on Friday that he called OPEC and told them that they’ve got to bring oil prices down. Analysts point out that it may very well be in the interests of OPEC as well as Russia, to actually raise production levels. In the meantime it seems to be the case that Russia, hopes to restore oil supplies in central and Western Europe after the supply was suspended for quality issues. Should we see a confirmation by OPEC or Russia, of increasing their production levels, we could see oil prices dropping even further. WTI prices tumbled on Friday, breaking the 63.80 (R1) support line (now turned to resistance) and the upward trendline incepted since the 26th of December 2018, aiming for the 62.00 (S1) support level, yet stabilized above it. As the upward trendline was broken, we switch our bullish view for black gold’s prices, for a bias in a sideways movement, yet at the same time suspect that the bears maybe just around the corner. Should the bears actually take over e could see WTI prices breaking the 62.00 (S1) support line and aim for the 60.50 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, we could see oil prices breaking the 63.80 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 65.30 (R2) resistance level.
Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow
Today during the European session, we get a number of finance releases about the Eurozone, yet we tend to single out April’s industrial sentiment for April. In the American session from the US we get the core PCE prices and personal spending growth rates for February. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get China’s NBS manufacturing PMI for April.
As for the rest of the week
On Tuesday, we get from Germany April’s unemployment data, the GFK Consumer climate for May and HICP preliminary rate for April, Eurozone’s preliminary GDP for Q1 and unemployment rate for March, Canada’s GDP for February, the US CB Consumer Sentiment for April and New Zealand’s employment data for Q1. On Wednesday, we get the UK Mfg PMI for April, the US ISM Mfg PMI for April, the Fed’s interest rate decision and China’s Caixin Mfg PMI for April. On Thursday, we get the UK construction PMI for April and BoE’s interest rate decision, and later we get the US factory orders growth rate for March. On Friday, we get the UK services PMI for April, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for April, and the US employment report for April and the ISM Non-Mfg PMI for April.
EUR/USD H4
Support: 1.1125 (S1), 1.1075 (S2), 1.1020 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1175 (R1), 1.1220 (R2), 1.1260 (R3)
WTI H4
Support: 62.00 (S1), 60.50 (S2), 58.50 (S3)
Resistance: 63.80 (R1), 65.30 (R2), 66.50 (R3)
