STOCKS
Equities can consolidate or may even dip in the near-term before a fresh leg of upmove begins.
Dow (26511.05, -48.49, -0.18%) was stuck in a narrow range around 26500 yesterday. The broader outlook remains bullish for a test of 26750. But as mentioned yesterday, an intermediate dip to 26250 cannot be ruled out before we see a rise to 26750.
DAX (12222.39, +69.32, +0.57%) was closed yesterday for Easter Monday. A key resistance is around 12275. A pull-back from there can drag the index lower to 12100-12000 in the coming days.
Nikkei (22158.50, -73.60, -0.33%) has been consolidating between 22050 and 22350. A break below 22050 can take the index lower to 21900. On the other hand a strong rise past 22350 can target 22700. The bias is bullish for the index to breach 22350 in the coming days.
Shanghai (3191.38, -23.66, -0.74%) has come-off sharply from its resistance at 3280. A test of 3150 looks likely. The 3150-3280 sideways range remains intact.
Sensex (38645.18, -495.10, -1.26%) and Nifty (11594.45, -158.35, -1.35%) have tumbled much more than the expected levels of 39000 and 11700 respectively. Immediate support is at 38500 on Sensex and 11550 on Nifty. A bounce from there can trigger a relief rally to 39000 and 11700 on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.
COMMODITIES
Oil has spiked following the US ending the Iran sanction waivers. But a crucial resistance is coming up for oil which can halt the current rally and trigger a corrective fall. Gold may consolidate sideways before resuming its downtrend. Silver remains stuck in a narrow range. Copper trades above a key support.
Gold (1275) rose to test 1280 as expected yesterday and has come-off from there. It can consolidate between 1270 and 1283 for some time before the overall downtrend resumes towards 1265 and 1260.
Silver (15.01) retains its narrow 14.90-15.10 sideways range. A breakout on either side of 15.10 or 14.90 will decide whether silver will go up to 15.20 or fall to 14.80.
Copper (2.91) is hovering above the crucial 2.90-2.88 support zone. A bounce in the coming sessions will take copper higher to 2.96 again. The outlook will turn negative for copper if it declines decisively below 2.88.
Brent (74.32) has surged breaking above the curcial Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 72.67. A test of 75.50-76 looks likely in the coming days. However, strong resistance is poised around 76 which may have the potential to halt the current rally. A pull-back from there can drag Brent lower to 73-72.5
WTI (65.90) has risen towards 66 as expected. Next crucial resistance is around 67 which can halt the rally and trigger a corrective fall to 65-64.
FOREX
Lack of immediate directional clarity on Euro and Dollar Index exists just now. Dollar Yen could either hold below 112 or try and test 112.50-113 in the medium term. USDCNY and USDINR could have some scope of moving up in the coming sessions.
The Dollar Index (97.33) is holding below resistance at 97.50 just now and while that holds, we could see a fall in Dollar Index towards immediate support near 97 over the next couple of sessions. Above 97.50, upper resistance at 97.75 could be tested. A sharp break on either side of the 97-97.50/75 region would be important to determine the direction in the longer run.
The Euro (1.1248) is holding below resistance at 1.1260/65 which could possibly limit further upside for the next few sessions. While Euro also looks strongly bearish for the medium term towards 1.12, it would have to be seen if the Dollar Index moves above 97.50.
The Euro-Yen (125.74) saw very narrow movement in the last 2-sessions but could move up to test 126.50 while above immediate support at 125.50/40.
Dollar-Yen (111.78) is stuck in a narrow range just below immediate resistance near 112 and has been trading along the trend resistance since the last 1-week. While the resistance is unable to produce a rejection towards 111 or lower, we need to be careful of any movement signaling a break above 112. On the weekly candles there is scope of rising towards 113. Note that 112.0-112.50-113 are important resistance levels and indicates limited upside for USDJPY in the medium term.
The Aussie (0.7127) could find support near 0.7125-0.7100 region which could take it higher in the near term to levels above 0.72. Failure to bounce from 0.71 could be vulnerable to a fall towards 0.7050. For now we prefer 0.71 to hold.
Chinese Yuan (6.7117) is trading below immediate daily trend resistance at 6.7140. A break on the upside would be crucial to signal a possible upmove in the medium term.
Dollar-Rupee (69.68) while sustains above 69.50 has a possibility to move higher towards 70.0-70.20 in the near term. Only an immediate fall below 69.50 could take it lower towards 69.25/00 before a rally towards 70.00/20 comes into the picture.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are slightly higher today. The 2Yr (2.39%), 5Yr (2.38%), 10Yr (2.58%) and 30Yr (2.98%) are up by 1bps. The 30 Yr has immediate trend resistance at current levels and while that holds, the 30YR could come off towards 2.95-2.90% levels in the near term.
The German 2Yr (-0.572%), 5Yr (-0.394%), 10Yr (0.026%) and 30Yr (0.679%) are almost stable and could face rejection from current levels leading to an eventual fall in the yields. The 10YR could target -0.1% in the near term.
The 10Yr GOI (7.6228%) saw a volatile session yesterday testing a high of 7.6455% on the upside. 7.65/68% is an immediate resistance and while that holds, the 10Yr could fall towards 7.55%.
