AUD/USD – 0.7469
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
New strategy :
Buy at 0.7420, Target: 0.7570, Stop: 0.7360
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
Although aussie fell to as low as 0.7372 late last week, decent demand emerged there and the pair has staged a strong rebound from there, suggesting the retreat from 0.7518 has possibly ended there, above 0.7475-80 would add credence to this view and extend gain to said resistance at 0.7518, break there would signal another leg of rise from 0.7329 low is underway and extend headway towards 0.7592 but resistance at 0.7611 should hold from here due to near term overbought condition.
In view of this, we are looking to buy aussie on dips as 0.7415-20 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below said support at 0.7372 would abort and revive our bearish view that the rebound from 0.7329 has ended at 0.7518 last month, bring further fall towards this level. Only a drop below there would confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.7295-00 (76.4% retracement of 0.7158-0.7750).
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
