STOCKS
Among the indices, the Dow and Shanghai remains bullish. DAX and Nikkei have key resistances ahead and a near-term pull-back cannot be ruled out in them before further upmove. Sensex looks mixed while the Nifty seems to have the potential to make a near-term bounce.
Dow (26424.99, +40.36, +0.15%) has made a decisive close above 26250 last week. The outlook is bullish for a rise to 26700 and 26750 in the near term. A pull-back to 26500 and 26450 is possible thereafter before the Dow heads towards 27000 and 27200 in the coming weeks.
DAX (12009.75, +21.74, +0.18%) has a key resistance near current levels at 12045. A strong break above it is needed to keep the uptrend intact and test 12100 and 12200 levels. A pull-back from this resistance can drag the index lower to 12870 or even lower in the coming days.
Nikkei (21809.42, +1.92, +0.01%) has an immediate resistance at 21870 which if broken can take it higher to 21930 and 22000. But a pull-back from there can take it lower to 21750 and even lower.
Shanghai (3272.15, +25.58, +0.79%) has opened on a positive note after the long weekend and is closer to our target of 3280. A corrective fall from the 3280-3300 region to 3250 cannot be ruled out. But the broader view remains bullish for the index to test 3350 in the coming weeks.
Sensex (38862, +177.51, +0.46%) has closed on a mixed note on Friday. It has equal chances to move either higher to 39000-39300 or fall to 38500 from current levels. The price action in the next few sessions/days will give a clear cue on it.
Nifty 50 (11665.95, +67.95, +0.59%) looks relatively positive than Sensex as it has held well above the key support at 11600. As long as it trades above 11600, an upmove to 11800 is possible in the near term. On the other hand, the near-term outlook will turn negative for a fall to 11500 and 11450 on a break below 11600.
COMMODITIES
Gold is holding above a key support and may see some uptick in the near term. Silver has resistance ahead and may consolidate sideways in the near term. Copper may trade sideways before a clear trend emerges. Oil remains bullish.
Gold (1297) is trying to inch higher. The sharp bounce from after testing 1280 several times last week leaves the possibility high of gold testing 1305 and 1310 in the near term. Gold is likely to come under pressure again only if it declines below 1280. Supports below 1280 are at 1275 and 1270.
Silver (15.17) has to rise past the 15.25-15.28 resistance cluster to get a breather and rise to 15.40-15.45. A pull-back from this resistance region can drag it to 15 again.
Copper (2.91) has bounced slightly from the key support level of 2.89. As long as it sustains above 2.89, a bounce to 2.95-2.96 is possible in the near term. A range bound move between 2.89 and 2.96 can be seen for some time and a breakout of this range will decide whether Copper is going up to 3.0 or fall to 2.85.
WTI (63.46) is trading just below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 63.7. A strong break above it will pave way for a test of 65 and even higher levels in the coming days. But a pull-back from 63.7 can take WTI lower to 62.8 or even 62.
Brent (70.72) has risen past the 69.70-70 resistance region and seems to be gaining strength. The bullish view remains intact for a test of 72.7 – the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
FOREX
Dollar-Index (97.29) is likely to remain stable. While below 97.75/50, there is scope of falling towards 96.75 in the near term.
Euro (1.1223) is trading near levels seen on Friday. Euro looks weak and while below 1.1250, it could come off towards 1.11 in the longer run. 1.1150-1.1250 could be the region of trade in the next few sessions.
Euro-Yen (125.04) could face immediate resistance near 125.7-126.0 region which if holds could push the currency pair towards 124-123 levels again in the medium term. While below 126, Euro-Yen remains bearish.
Dollar Yen (111.40) has daily trend resistance at 112.50 which if holds could push the pair towards 111.50-110.50 in the near to medium term. Immediate rise towards 112.50 is possible before a fall is seen from there.
Aussie (0.7098) has been trading along resistance near 0.7150 and is stuck within 0.7150-0.7050 region for the past 15-16 sessions. A rejection from here if sharp enough may break below 0.7050 to head towards 0.6950 in the medium term; else a break above 0.7150, would take it towards the upper resistance near 0.72.
Pound (1.3055) is trading above support at 1.30 and could see some ranged trade within 1.3000-1.3150 region in the near term. An extension above 1.3150 could take it higher towards 1.33/34 levels. For now support at 1.30 is likely to hold.
USDCNY (6.7151) is trading in the 6.70-6.73 region and could trade sideways today. Thereafter a break on either side looks possible; we would wait for confirmation.
Dollar-Rupee (69.23) is likely to remain below 69.50 today. We are considering a rise towards 70 in the medium term, but if 69.50 holds just now, we could see a fall towards 69 again in the next few sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have dipped slightly and could now see some corrective fall in the next few sessions. The 10YR (2.49%) could fall towards 2.45/43% in the near term while the 30Yr (2.90%) could come off towards 2.85%.
The 10Yr GOI (7.5102%) dipped slightly on Friday. It would be important to see if 7.55% holds and pushes the yield towards 7.40% or lower or allows a rise towards 7.60%. Accordingly, we may see movement in Dollar-Rupee too; given the positive directional correlation currently between Dollar-Rupee and the 10Yr GOI.
The US-JGB 10YR (2.54%) has slightly risen and could move up a bit towards 2.58% before coming off from there back towards 2.50% in the medium term.
The UK-US 10YR (-1.38%) has risen to test immediate resistance and while that holds, a fall to -1.46% could be seen on the cards for the near term.
