STOCKS
Among the equities, Shanghai and Nikkei are positive in the near term. DAX is heading towards a key resistance. Dow, Sensex and Nifty may see some downticks in the near term before resuming their uptrend.
Dow (26218.13, +39.00, +0.15%) continued to trade below the resistance at 26250. As mentioned yesterday, a dip to 26000 cannot be ruled out while below 26250. A range bound move between 26000 and 2625 seems likely in the near term. A decisive break above 26250 is needed for the Dow to target 27000 and 27200 thereafter.
DAX (11954.40, +199.61, +1.70%) retains the momentum and has surged further. The index is likely to extend the current upmove towards 11200 and even 11250 in the coming days after which a corrective fall is possible. Support is at 11900.
Nikkei (21760.65, +47.44, +0.22%) remains positive and is heading towards 21900-22000 as expected. Cluster of resistances are poised in between 21925 and 22000. A pull-back from there can drag it to 21500 or even 21000 again. But a strong weekly close above 22000 will increase the possibility of the index targeting 22600 thereafter.
Shanghai (3244.82, +28.52, +0.89%) has risen sharply above 3200 and remains bullish for a test of 3280.
Sensex (38877.12, -179.53, -0.46%), though surged to record highs, seems to be lacking fresh follow-through buyers above 39000. This keeps the possibility high of the index falling to 38500 on a break below 38800 in the coming sessions. A decisive close above 39000 is needed to bring back the bullish momentum to target 39500 and higher levels.
Nifty (11643.95, -69.25, -0.59%) has immediate support at 11600 which is likely to be tested in the coming sessions. A break below it can trigger a corrective fall to 11500 or even 11400. Nifty needs a strong close above 11760 to become bullish again and move higher.
COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver looks mixed and can remain range bound in the near term. May be the outcome of the US non-farm payroll data on Friday could be a trigger for it break the range on either side. Copper has bounced from a key support but has a resistance ahead which has to be breached for it to move further higher. Oil may consolidate or may dip in the near term before moving higher.
Gold (1291) continues to hover above 1280. The near term outlook is mixed and gold can trade in the broad 1280-1305 range for some time.
Silver (15.13) is stuck in between 15 and 15.2. A breakout on either side of 15 or 15.2 will decide the next move. A test of 15.35 is possible on a break above 15.2. On the other hand, a break below 15 can take it to 14.85.
The support in the 2.90-2.89 region has held well for Copper (2.95). It has bounced to 2.95 as expected. A decisive break above 2.96 is needed for copper to extend the upmove to 3.0 levels. Inability to breach 2.96 can drag it to 2.90 again.
WTI (62.41) is holding higher but seems to lack strength. Support is at 61.45 (200-day moving average). While above this support, a test of 63.5-64 is possible in the near term. But a decisive break below 61.45 will drag WTI to 60.35.
The 69.7-70 resistance region on the Brent (69.35) has been holding well as of now. A dip to 68.3 and 68 looks likely before Brent breaks above 70 and rallies to 72.
FOREX
Dollar-Index (97.08) has dipped from 97.50 itself and could possibly fall towards 96.50 or lower in the coming sessions. Trading within the broad 97.75-95.75 region the current fall is likely to sustain for about a week at least.
Euro (1.1238) on the other hand has bounced back sharply negating a test of 1.11 just now. While the rise sustains, Euro could continue to move up towards 1.1250-1.1300 in the near term.
Euro-Yen (125.22) is almost stable. We need to see if it breaks above 125.40 which would enable a rise towards 126.0-126.8 again in the near term; else a fall back to 125-124 is possible.
Dollar Yen (111.42) could test resistance levels of 111.50-112.0 from where a rejection is expected towards 111-110 in the near term.
Aussie (0.7116) has risen sharply. A break above 0.7150 could take it higher towards upper resistance of 0.72.
Pound (1.3171) has tested resistance at 1.32 and could face rejection to 1.3050 just now. Only on a rise above 1.32, we would consider medium term bullishness for Pound targeting upside levels of 1.34.
USDCNY (6.7136) could rise towards 6.75 in the near term. Near term looks bullish.
Dollar-Rupee (68.43) declined after rising to 68.83 yesterday indicating that the bearish momentum is strong and is in place for the near term. While downside levels of 68.25/00 remains open, we could possibly see a short bounce from 68.40/35 levels during the coming sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US Yields are headed up. The 30Yr (2.93%) is up from 2.90% seen yesterday and could move up towards 3% before pausing. The 10Yr (2.52%) is also headed up and could rise towards 2.55/58% in the coming sessions.
RBI Monetary policy is due today.
The 10Yr GOI (7.4167%) needs to break below 7.40% to turn bearish towards 7.35%. Else we could see some ranged trade within 7.40-7.45%.
The German-US 10YR (-1.42%), the US-JGB 10YR (2.56%) and the German-JGB 10YR (0.05%) have all bounced well from near term supports and while the spreads continue to rise, the respective currency pairs of Euro, Dollar-Yen and Euro-Yen look bullish for the near term.
