US oil price remains at the back foot on Thursday but holding above Wednesday’s spike low at $47.72, where two day fall was contained by daily Kijun-sen line. Long tail of yesterday’s candle signaled strong downside rejection that may trigger extended consolidation. Upside attempts stalled at $49.05, after false break above initial 20SMA barrier at $48.85, keeping daily MA’s in bearish setup. Oil is awaiting release of US weekly Crude Stocks data for fresh signals. Forecast for 2.5 million barrels draw is well below previous week’s 4.4 million barrels draw and may put oil price under increased pressure on release at/below consensus. Daily Kijun-sen marks pivotal support and close below it may trigger fresh bearish acceleration towards $46.89 (Fibo 61.8% of $43.74/$51.98 rally. Conversely, close above 20SMA would ease persisting downside pressure and expose a cluster of strong barriers between $49.50 and $50.00.
Res: 48.85; 49.05; 49.50; 50.00
Sup: 48.19; 47.86; 47.35; 46.89
