AUD/USD – 0.7406
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
Original strategy :
Bought at 0.7405, Target: 0.7570, Stop: 0.7345
Position: – Long at 0.7405
Target:Â – 0.7570
Stop: – 0.7345
New strategy :
Exit long entered at 0.7405
Position: – Long at 0.7405
Target:Â –
Stop:-
Aussie ran into selling interest at 0.7455 earlier today and has dropped in European morning, dampening our bullishness and near term downside risk is seen for weakness to 0.7380-85, break there would suggest the rebound from 0.7329 has ended at 0.7518 last month, bring further fall to 0.7350, then retest of this level later. Only a drop below this support at 0.7329 would confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.7295-00 (76.4% retracement of 0.7158-0.7750).
In view of this, would be prudent to exit our long position entered at 0.7405 and stand aside for now. above said intra-day resistance at 0.7455 would bring test of 0.7476 but break there is needed to revive bullishness and signal the retreat from 0.7518 has ended, bring another test of this level first, break there would extend the rise from 0.7329 low to resistance at 0.7556.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
