STOCKS
Equities have bounced as expected. While the DAX looks more positive others like the Dow, Sensex, Nifty etc are closer to a key resistance which will need a close watch.
Dow Jones (25,650.88, +200.64, +0.79%) has risen sharply yesterday. A key resistance is near current levels at 25,720 (21-day moving average). A break above it can take the index further higher to 26,000. But a pull-back from 25,720 can drag the index to 25,200 and 25,150. In such a scenario, a range bound move between 25,100 and 25,720 is possible for some time.
DAX (11,543.48, +85.64, +0.75%) has reversed higher from the 21-day moving average support level of 11,407. A revisit of 11,650 levels looks possible in the coming sessions.
Nikkei (21,521.61, +396.52, +1.88%) has bounced after brief dip below 21,000 yesterday and is likely to head towards 21,600-21,650 in the near term.
Shanghai (3,072.73, +45.74, +1.51%) can test 3,100 on a break above 3,075. The price action in the coming sessions will give a clear and confirmed indication of the next move.
Sensex (37,054.10, +382.67, +1.04%) and Nifty 50 (11,168.05, +132.65, +1.20%) have surged sharply yesterday and are closer to a key trend resistance. Sensex has a resistance near 37,100 and for the Nifty it is at 11,200. A pull-back from these resistances can drag the Nifty to 11,100 and Sensex to 36,900 or even 36,700. But a break above these resistances can take the Sensex higher to 37,550 and the Nifty 50 to 11,285-11,300.
COMMODITIES
Oil is moving higher within its overall sideways range. Gold can consolidate in the near-term with a bullish bias. Silver looks positive to move further higher. Copper has bounced from a key support and can see some upticks in the near term.
Gold (1295) has come-off slightly, but is holding above the support at 1290. As mentioned yesterday, gold may consolidate between 1290 and 1300 for a few sessions with a bullish bias to break above 1300 and test 1310 in the near term.
Silver (15.35) looks slightly stronger that gold and is likely to test 15.5 and 15.6. Support is at 15.15.
Copper (2.91) has bounced from the key support level of 2.88. A test of 2.93 and 2.95 is possible while above 2.90.
WTI (56.95) and Brent (66.82) have inched higher within their sideways range. As mentioned yesterday, Brent is likely to test 67, a break above which can take it to 68. WTI can rise to 58 on a break above 57.2. Overall the 64-68 and 55-58 sideways range on Brent and WTI respectively remains intact.
FOREX
Some corrective move seen in the currency markets. While Dollar trades weak, currencies are sensing some relief and strengthening since the last 2-sessions.
Dollar-Index (97.06) is trading below 97.25 and has scope of testing 96.50 before a corrective upmove is possible. Instead a rise back towards 97.25 or higher seen today would make it bullish to re-test 97.75 on the upside. Higher chances of 97 holding just now seem probable.
Euro (1.1259) has risen and looks bullish towards 1.1340/50 in the coming sessions. Only on a break below 1.12, we would consider a possible test of 1.11 on the downside. Else, 1.12 is expected to hold for the near term.
Euro-Yen (125.46) has bounced well from 124.40 and while the rise sustains, Euro-Yen could rise towards 126.00/80.
Dollar Yen (111.42) has 111 as an immediate support and while that holds, the pair could rise towards 112.00/50. Near term looks bullish.
Pound (1.3217) has risen sharply in the last 2-sessions but faced rejection from 1.33. While 1.33 holds, Pound could fall back towards 1.31; else if the upward momentum continues, we could see a rise towards 1.34 soon. Watch price action near 1.33.
Aussie (0.7073) is looking bullish towards 0.7150. Narrow trade range of 0.70-0.7150 could remain for some more time.
USDCNY (6.7125) has dipped a bit. Could test 6.70 before again re-attempting a test of 6.72. Note that the pair has fallen from resistance on the daily candles and while that holds, near term could be bearish towards 6.68.
Dollar Rupee (69.89) has immediate support at 69.75 as seen on the daily candles and lower support at 69.50 on the 3-day candles. These levels are likely to hold this week producing a bounce to 70 or higher within the next couple of weeks. Today we could see a dip below 69.80 targeting 69.75 or lower.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have bounced and are trading higher today. . The 2Yr (2.50%), 5Yr (2.47%), 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.05%) have risen sharply and look bullish for the rest of the sessions this week. The 5Yr, 10YR and 30YR could rise towards 2.5%, 2.7% and 3.10% soon. The 2Yr could test 2.52-2.55% in the near term. Overall the yields may continue to rise for the next few sessions.
The Japan 10YR yield (-0.03%) is trading near support and could bounce towards 0.003 in the near term.
The UK yields are falling and heading towards support levels. A bounce in the yields could be seen soon. The 20Yr (1.63%) has support near 1.60-1.5970 levels and could bounce from there soon while the 10Yr (1.18%) could test 1.14-1.10% before rising from there.
The 10Yr GOI (7.5124%) dipped again yesterday and could be headed towards 7.45% in the near term favoring some more strength in the Rupee. 7.45% is an immediate support and could produce a bounce pushing back the yield to levels above 7.50/55% in the medium term.
