STOCKS
After having beaten down badly last week, the global equities might get a breather in the near term. Although the short-term view continues to remain negative, a corrective rally or a consolidation is possible in the coming days before the downtrend resumes.
Dow Jones (25,450.24, -22.99, -0.09%), though closed in red on Friday, has managed bounce from the low of 25,252. The overall bearish outlook is intact. But a corrective rally to 25,600-25-700 cannot be ruled out before the overall downtrend resumes targeting 25,100 and 25,000.
DAX (11,457.84, -59.96, -0.52%) has a support at 11,377 (21-day moving average). While above this support, an intermediate bounce to 11,550 is possible. But a break below 11,377 will pave way for a fall to 11,320 and 11,300.
Nikkei (21,069.93, +44.37, +0.21%) has bounced after testing the psychological support level of 21,000. If the index continues to trade above 21,000 an upmove to 21,350 is possible in the near term.
Shanghai (3006.19, +36.33, +1.22%) tumbled below 3,000 on Friday. The level of 3,010 will be a key resistance which has to be breached for the index to gain strength again. While below 3,010, a fall to 2,930 and 2,900 is possible in the coming days.
Sensex (36,671.43, -53.99, -0.15%) and Nifty 50 (11,035.40, -22.80, -0.21%) remains mixed. A key support for Sensex is at 36,480 and Nifty at 11,000 which will need a close watch. While these supports hold, Sensex can rise to 36,930 and 37,000 and Nifty 50 can target 11,150 in the coming days.
COMMODITIES
Oil is retaining its sideways range. Gold and Silver has bounced from a key support and can consolidate for a few sessions before moving further higher. Copper is near a crucial support.
Gold (1296) may consolidate between 1290 and 1300 for some time with the bias inclined towards a rise to 1310 in the near term while above 1290.
Silver (15.28) has support at 15.15. Though a test of it cannot be ruled out, a break below it looks less probable. A rise to 15.55-15.60 can be seen in the coming sessions.
Copper (2.89) is trading above a crucial support level of 2.88 (21-day moving average). If it manages to sustain above it, a bounce to 2.93 and 2.95 is possible in the coming days. But a break below 2.89 will see the corrective fall extending towards 2.84 in the coming days.
Oil has bounced sharply after tumbling to test the range lows on the 64-68 sideways range on Brent (65.87) and the 55-58 range on WTI (56.32) remains intact. Brent has reversed sharply higher from around 64. While above 65.20 an upmove to 67 is possible in the near term. WTI has an immediate support at 55.85 and a test of 57.2 is possible while it sustains above this support.
FOREX
Overall currencies are mixed. Euro, Euro-Yen, Dollar Yen, Pound and Aussie have bounced from support levels and could rise in the near term or see some range trade while USDCNY could face resistance above current levels. USDINR is trading near lower support and could soon see a bounce.
Trading below 97.70, Dollar-Index (97.42) needs to break below 97.25 to fall further towards 97 or lower. Immediate support is seen near 97.25 which if holds could push the index back towards 97.70.
Euro (1.1229) has risen from levels seen near 1.1199 on Friday. A break above 1.1250 could take the current rise towards 1.13-1.14 again. While below 1.1250, there is scope for re-testing levels of 1.11 on the downside.
Euro-Yen (124.75) is almost stable. A break below 124.40, if seen would turn bearish for the coming sessions towards 123.60. The pair needs to bounce back immediately in order to turn bullish towards 126-127 again. On the line charts, there is scope of falling to 123 before a bounce is seen in the longer run.
Dollar Yen (111.10) tested 21-Ma on the daily charts near 110.75 and has bounced from there to trade near current levels. Unless a fall below 110.75 is seen again, Dollar-Yen looks bullish towards 112.0-112.5 for the near term.
Pound (1.2969) has fallen as expected and could test immediate support at 1.2950 from where a bounce is expected back towards 1.31/32 levels. Watch price action near 1.2950.
Aussie (0.7034) resolved to the upside bouncing from 0.70 and while the bounce sustains, a rise towards 0.7150 looks possible.
USDCNY (6.7214) has risen but could face resistance near 6.73 which if holds could turn bearish for USDCNY in the near term. On the other hand, if the pair manages to break above 6.73, it could turn bullish for the medium term towards 6.75 or even higher.
Dollar Rupee (70.08) has some room for a test of 69.75/50 on the downside. But in case the pair bounces from current level itself, it could soon target 70.50/70 on the upside in the next 1-2 weeks. Watch price action near current levels as failure to rise above 70.20 immediately could give some scope of falling towards 69.75/50 again in the medium term.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are almost stable. The 2Yr (2.47%), 5Yr (2.44%), 10Yr (2.63%) and 30Yr (3.02%) have some more scope on the downside before a bounce is seen. Supports are visible near 3% on the 30YR, 2.6% on the 10Yr and 2.42% on the 5YR. The yields could now start to bounce from current levels and look bullish for the near term after a possible dip of 1-2bps in the next few sessions.
The 10Yr GOI (7.5338%) needs to bounce back from here immediately, else could fall towards 7.45% is possible in the near term which could also drag down Dollar-Rupee to lower levels. On the contrary, if the yield bounces from current levels, a rise towards 7.65/70% could be on the cards.
