USDCAD bears have been stubbornly testing the 200-day moving average (MA) this week after confirming another lower high around 1.3340. But the momentum indicators signal that the negative mode has not faded yet as the RSI continues to hover below its 50 neutral threshold with weak momentum and the MACD keeps losing ground below its red signal line, both endorsing a neutral-to-negative bias for the short-term.
Slightly below the 200-day MA, the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3118 of the upleg from 1.2781 to 1.3663 could provide support to negative movements as it did earlier this week. Falling lower and below the previous low of 1.3067, the market could face further deterioration, with the price probably pausing next near 1.2970 before a stronger barrier in the 1.2885 area comes into focus.
Should bullish pressure return, the bulls would need to break the 1.3170-1.3222 (50% Fibonacci) region to reach key resistance at 1.3328 (38.2% Fibonacci). Higher and above the 1.3373 peak, the rally could last until 1.3454 (23.6% Fibonacci).
In the medium-term timeframe, USDCAD should remain in a neutral phase as long as it fluctuates between 1.3663 and 1.30.
