Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3101; (P) 1.3127; (R1) 1.3153; More…
USD/CAD is staying below 1.3165 minor resistance for now and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 1.3068 will extend the fall from 1.3664. But we’d stay cautious on bottoming as USD/CAD is close to channel support (now at 1.3061). On the upside break of 1.3165 will turn bias to the upside for rebounding towards 1.3375 resistance. Firm break there will confirm that fall from 1.3664 has completed. However, sustained break of the channel support will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.2891.
In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3049) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.
