AUD/USD gyrated to 0.7076 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that fall from 0.7235 is merely a correction and has completed. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 0.7235 resistance first. Break till resume whole rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 resistance next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. For now, in case of retreat, near term outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.7076 support holds.
In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
