Market movers ahead
- Trade talks between China and the US are the ‘name of the game’ next week, with the meeting taking place on 30-31 January.
- In the UK, the House of Commons is due to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit Plan B (and amendments) on Tuesday.
- The government shutdown may affect the US jobs report, while we do not expect the FOMC meeting to bring any new signals.
- In the euro area, we do not expect the Q4 GDP flash report to show any significant rebound from the lacklustre Q3 number.
- The euro area HICP inflation number for January is set to show a further decline to 1.3%, driven by lower energy prices.
Weekly wrap-up
- In the UK this week, Prime Minister May presented her Brexit Plan B on Tuesday, which, as expected, did not really provide any clarification.
- As expected, the ECB made no changes to its policy rate or forward guidance at its meeting this week and we still believe a rate hike in December is likely.
- Euro area PMI revealed further weakness, while the US counterpart painted a stronger picture of the US economy.
- Ahead of the crucial US-China trade talks next week, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said this week that while the two countries are still ‘miles away’ from a deal, he thinks there is a fair chance they will reach one eventually.
