Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.10; (P) 109.40; (R1) 109.65; More…
USD/JPY’s rise from 104.69 resumes today by breaching 109.89. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.
