WTI oil stands at the back foot in early US trading on Wednesday, after recovery attempts in Asian session which peaked at $52.50, were short-lived. Tuesday’s bullish outside day pattern provided little support to oil price which stays congested within triangular consolidation for the third straight day. Converging 10SMA (currently at $50.45) and 55SMA (currently at $52.80) mark pivotal points with break of either side to provide fresh direction signal after recovery leg from $42.36 low stalled on approach to falling 55SMA. Strong pressure also comes from falling thick daily cloud (cloud base lays at $54.37) and south-heading momentum and slow stochastic. Sideways-moving RSI / MACD and mixed setup of daily MA’s offsets immediate negative signals, keeping near-term action in neutral mode, helped by symbolic draw of US crude stocks (API report on Tuesday showed 0.5 mln bls draw vs previous week’s 6.2 mln bls draw. Focus turns on today’s release on today’s EIA report (1.3 mln bls draw f/c vs 1.6 mln bls draw previous week) which could provide fresh signals on surprise. Key fundamentals are also mixed as EIA announced increase of US oil output in 2019/20 while rising optimism on solution of US/China trade dispute and fresh measures of PBOC to stimulate economy provide positive signals. Negative scenario on break below 10SMA/current congestion low, would open way towards $49.11 (Fibo 38.2% of $42.36/$53.29 / 30SMA) and key support at $48.06 (20SMA / near 50% retracement of $42.36/$53.29). Sustained break above 55SMA and violation of daily cloud would neutralize bearish threats and signal further recovery.
Res: 52.80; 53.29; 54.37; 55.55
Sup: 51.45; 50.71; 50.45; 49.11
