The Euro stands at the front foot in early Thursday’s trading and probes again above falling 30SMA (1.1407) after Wednesday’s recovery attempt stalled just above it and subsequent pullback signaled strong upside rejection on daily candle with long upper shadow. The dollar is lower on rebound of US stocks that reduces safe-haven demand and offers support to Euro. Sustained break above 30SMA is needed to continue recovery from 1.1360 zone, where recent weakness found footstep. Daily techs are mixed and lack firmer direction signals for now, while studies on lower timeframes are neutral/negative, signaling that recovery attempts may run out of steam again. Lower volumes are expected today as the US is shut for Thanksgiving holiday, with key event of the European session being minutes of the latest ECB policy meeting. Although markets do not expected anything substantially new from the ECB, the central bank may point on solid growth and inflation, which could shake holiday-thinned market. Focus turns towards Friday’s releases of German GDP and EU PMI data, which could bring the single currency under fresh pressure as German GDP data signal contraction, while EU Services and composite PMI’s are forecasted lower. Bears look for initial signal on break below 20SMA (1.1367), with close below 10SMA (1.1349) to confirm and open way for further weakness. Conversely, sustained break above 30SMA would sideline downside risk and shift near-term focus up.
Res: 1.1407, 1.1424, 1.1444, 1.1472
Sup: 1.1380, 1.1367, 1.1349, 1.1313
