Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.20 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.30 %, Hang Seng rose 0.70 %, ASX 200 lost 0.10 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1230 (+0.20 %), Silver at $16.52 (+0.70 %), WTI Oil at $48.65 (+1.70 %), Brent Oil at $51.70 (+1.70 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.33, UK 10-year yield at 1.10, German 10-year yield at 0.39
News & Data
- China Industrial Production 6.5 % vs 7.1 % expected
- China Retail Sales 10.7 % vs 10.6 % expected
- China Fixed Asset Investment 8.9 % vs 9.1 % expected
- New Zealand Retail Sales q/q 1.5 % vs 1.1 % expected
- New Zealand Core Retail Sales q/q 1.2 % vs 0.9 % expected
- Japan PPI m/m 0.2 % vs -0.1 % expected
- Japan PPI y/y 2.1 % vs 1.8 % expected
- Australia Home Loans -0.5 % vs 0.1 % expected
- PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.8852 (vs. Friday at 6.8948)
- Russia’s Novak: Russia And Saudi Agree Output Cuts Need to Be Extended Until March 2018
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR long 22K vs 2K short last week. Longs increased by 24K
- GBP short 47K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 34K
- JPY short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
- CHF short 15K vs 18K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
- CAD short 86K vs 48K short. Shorts increased by 38K
- AUD long 26K vs 43K long. Longs cut 17K
- NZD short 11K vs 12K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
Markets Update:
Markets did not react to the news about another North Korean missile test. Asian stock markets had a solid performance overall, and commodity currencies rose overnight, indicating that risk appetite remains intact for now.
EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.0930, unchanged from Friday’s close. The currency rose on Friday on rumours that the ECB might signal the end of its ultra-loose monetary policy this summer. However, those are still only rumours. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0950, followed by 1.10.
USD/JPY recovered slightly overnight. Resistance is now seen at the former support area between 113.70 and 113.80. Key support is noted at 113. Should USD/JPY break below it, further losses towards 112.20 seem likely.
AUD/USD traded in a 0.7385-0.74 range overnight. Resistance at 0.7420/25 has proven to be strong. A clear break above it would then signal a move towards 0.75 though.
Upcoming Events:
- 10:00 BST – Italian CPI
- 13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, May 16th
- 02:30 BST – RBA Meeting Minutes
- 07:45 BST – French CPI
- 09:00 BST – Italian GDP
- 09:30 BST – UK GDP
- 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone GDP
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 13:30 BST – US Housing Starts
- 13:30 BST – US Building Permits
- 14:15 BST – US Industrial Production
- 14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production
Wednesday, May 17th
- 01:30 BST – Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment
- 09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change
- 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, May 18th
- 00:50 BST – Japanese GDP
- 02:30 BST – Australian Unemployment Rate
- 02:30 BST – Australian Employment Change
- 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales
- 13:30 BST – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15:00 BST – US CB Leading Index
- 18:00 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks
Friday, May 19th
- 07:00 BST – German PPI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account
- 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales
- 15:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
