WTI crude oil futures tumbled lower over the last couple of sessions, reaching again the short-term ascending trend line in the 4-hour chart. Also, oil prices dropped below the 20-simple moving average (SMA), while the technical indicators are confirming the recent negative structure in the near-term. The RSI indicator is pointing south in the negative zone and the stochastic oscillator is ready for a bearish cross within the %K and %D lines.
Should the price manage to strengthen its negative momentum and post a significant leg below the uptrend line, the next support could come from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 64.40 to 76.90, around 70.64. A break below this area would shift the bias to a more neutral one and open the way towards the 70.00 handle. Below this level, the next target could come from the 61.8% Fibonacci mark of 69.17.
On the flip side, if prices rebound on the rising trend line, confirming the short- to medium-term bullish bias, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 72.12 could come in focus again. Further advances could drive oil until the 72.70 – 73.00 area, which encapsulates the 40-SMA. The next key resistance to watch higher is the 23.6% Fibonacci of 73.94.
To summarize, WTI crude looks neutral to bearish in the very short-term, while in the longer-term picture, it has been strongly positive since January 2016.
