There is cealry a signficant global risk and the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in
European markets and US futures are completely out of sync today. We do believe that it is likely that the European markets may start to trade lower and follow the same path as that of U.S futures. This is mainly because investors are concerned about the worsening financial conditions in the emerging markets and especially the heavy sell-off which we have witnessed yesterday over in China.
This is because the uncertainty clouds have started to pour heavy rain now- the International Monetary Fund raised its concerns about the world economy. The IMF has cut its projection for the global expansion to 3.7% for this year and next from its previous projection of 3.9%. Christine Laggard did say in her last speech that the global trade war is a matter of concern for the fund. As a result, this is the first time we have seen the fund downgrading their forecast since July 2016. The question which needs to be answered here is if the IMF is wrong in forecasting this? The reason for this is that we have not seen anything like this coming out from the Fed over in the U.S. Perhaps, the Fed is completely wrong and they are in a denial state. After all, it is intriguing that the Fed has shown no serious fear about the ongoing trade war since it has started and this is despite the fact that a number of other central banks around the globe have raised this issue.
Clearly, there is a risk and the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in and the mounting weakness in the emerging market could further dampen the outlook. The risk to global outlook have increased significantly in the past three months and there is no clear solution when the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China will settle.
Over in the U.S., traders have pushed the ten-year U.S. Treasury yields to a fresh seven-year high- clearly another alarming sign. Chinese stocks remain the key area of focus for investors after they dumped $1.4 billion of domestic stock. However, today, we have not seen the same intensity in terms of sell-off over in China. If the trade war remains at its current state, it is likely to push the Chinese currency lower and this will host a set of all new problems for the world economy.
GOLD
The renewed risk appetite is supporting the gold price to some extent but we are still not seeing any strong moves. At least for now. But one element remains clear; worsening financial conditions, trade war and the heightened tensions between Italy and the EU are going to continue to support the gold price in the long run. We do think that given the landscape of uncertainty which is currently cultivating, the gold price at its current level is immensely attractive. Gold traders are also encouraged by the recent IMF move, and this is the sole reason that we are seeing the gold price higher despite the fact that the dollar is strong today.
