Disappointment at the nonfarm payrolls report was a distant memory on Monday as USD/JPY rose to a fresh six-week high. On the day, USD was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged. Australian retail sales and the budget are due up next.
USD/JPY broke 113.20 in a rise to the highest since March 16. It’s been a steady 500 pip climb since April 16 as the S&P 500 continues to hit fresh highs. The Federal Reserve is one reason why. Mester spoke Monday and brushed aside week economic data while touting sentiment indicators and jobs data.
The euro was a classic ‘sell the fact’ trade as the opening gap above 1.10 in EUR/USD quickly closed and the pair fell to 1.0920. The March26 high of 1.0906 and psychological support at 1.0900 are the next levels to watch.
With the French election ending and Trump leaving his first 100 days, expect the markets to shift gears. Political risk has been at generational highs but it’s likely to ebb over the Summer months. In that time, the focus will shift back to economic data and central banks.
A third focus will be China. Officials have been tightening credit in an attempt to cool the economy. The fallout has been felt through the commodities market and we will be looking for signs it’s hitting more broadly.
In terms of economic data, next we look to Australian retail sales at 0130 GMT. The consensus is for a 0.3% m/m rise. AUD/USD finished near the lowest levels since January on Monday and it has struggled to hold gains on good news.
What will eventually prove to be a bigger driver of AUD is the government’s budget, which will also be released Monday. One accounting proposal is to separate regular government debt from infrastructure debt. It’s an interesting development and more of a PR move that would make road and bridge building an easier sell but it could also mean more debt issuance, for better or worse.
