US equities jumped overnight and extended the record run as Fed chair Janet Yellen sounded optimistic on the economic outlook. DJIA rose 92.25 pts or 0.45% to 20504.41. S&P 500 rose 9.33 pts or 0.40% to 2337.58. NASDAQ rose 18.61 pts or 0.32% to 5782.57. All three major indices closed at new records highs. Notable strength was also seen in treasury yields as 10 year yield rose 0.036 to 2.470. 30 year yield rose 0.028 to 3.062. But other TNX and TYX are still bounded in recent range. Dollar index extended recent rebound to as high as 101.38 and is now trading at around 101.20. In the currency markets, the Japanese yen remains the weakest major currency for the week on strong risk appetite. Euro closely follows on worries over political situation in Europe. Dollar is trading in black against all majors except Canadian.

Fed chair Yellen delivered hawkish message

Investors viewed Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee as modestly hawkish. As such, expectations for a March rate hike rose modestly while Treasury yields climbed higher. While reiterating that all meetings are ‘live’ for a rate hike, Yellen warned that waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise’. Meanwhile, she cautioned over the uncertainty over the economic policy under Donald Trump’s administration. Yellen emphasized the Fed’s monetary policy stance is not based on ‘speculations’ about fiscal policy. The economy’s ‘solid progress’ is what is ‘driving the policy decisions’. More in Yellen Raised Hopes Of March Rate Hike.

Dollar index heading back to 103.82

Dollar index’s rise this week affirmed the case that corrective pull back from 103.82 has completed at 99.23 already. The index managed to defend key support of 61.8% retracement of 95.88 to 103.82 at 98.91 and 99.43. The development maintains bullishness in the index. Further rebound should now be seen back 103.82 high first. Break will extend the larger up trend from 91.91. Nonetheless, break of 100.08 minor support will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 99.23 instead.

UK employment, US CPI and retail sales watched

On the data front, Australia Westpac consumer confidence rose 2.3% in February. UK job data will be the main focus in European session. Sterling has been under some pressure after CPI miss. And further data disappointment could add on the weight on the Pound. Eurozone will release trade balance too. In US session, Fed chair Yellen will have her second day of semiannual testimony. US will release CPI, retail sales, Empire state manufacturing, industrial production, NAHB housing and business inventories.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.37; (P) 113.77; (R1) 114.13; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 111.58 resumed after brief consolidation. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 115.36 resistance. We’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 has completed at 111.58. Break of 115.36 will confirm this bullish case and bring retest of 118.65 high. Meanwhile, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Economic Indicators Update

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