The Euro accelerates lower in early European trading after recovery attempts from Tuesday’s spike low at 1.1530 during late US session on Tuesday and Asian session on Wednesday, stalled near 55SMA (1.1615).
Fresh weakness offsets positive signal from Wednesday’s strong downside rejection and failure to close below 1.1568 pivot (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1300/1.1733 ascend).
The Euro remains at the back foot, pressured by stronger dollar on safe-haven buying on uncertainty ahead of continuation of US-Canada talks about new trade agreement, which so far did not result in any deal, as well as growing fears about escalation of US-China trade conflict.
South-heading 14-d momentum is attempting to create bear-cross and supports negative scenario, but daily MA’s are still in mixed setup and slow stochastic turned sideways on oversold zone border, providing no clear direction signal for now.
Fresh weakness is supported by falling hourly cloud but needs clear break below cracked Fibo 38.2% support at 1.1568 and 4-hr cloud base at 1.153) to generate bearish signal, confirmation of which requires break and close below 20SMA (1.1538).
Alternative scenario needs lift above converged and parallel-running 55/10SMA’s (1.1615/28) to neutralize existing downside threats and shift near-term focus higher.
German and EU services PMI data and EU retail sales are key events of the European session today.
Res: 1.1615, 1.1627, 1.1660, 1.1690
Sup: 1.1563, 1.1538, 1.1517, 1.1479
