Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Stand aside

EUR/GBP – 0.8448

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term down

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –

 
Despite intra-day bounce to 0.8485, lack of follow through buying and current retreat has retained our view that further consolidation would be seen and weakness to 0.8400-05 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal the rebound from 0.8312 has ended, bring further fall to 0.8370-75 but support at 0.8351 should remain intact, bring another rebound later.

On the upside, above said resistance at 0.8485 would bring a stronger rebound to 0.8505 but break of indicated resistance at 0.8531 is needed to add credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 0.8312 and extend the rebound from there for retracement of recent decline to 0.8550, however, reckon resistance at 0.8580 would limit upside and 0.8600-10 would hold from here. As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. 

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.