Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1519; (P) 1.1539; (R1) 1.1551; More…
EUR/CHF weakens mildly after hitting 4 hour 55 EMA. But it’s held well above 1.1489 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen. In case of another recovery, though, upside should be limited by 1.1603 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. We’re holding on to the view that corrective rebound from 1.1366 has completed at 1.1713. Break of 1.1478 support will confirm and target 1.1366 low and below. However, break of 1.1603 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1713 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
