The pair stands at the back foot on Thursday, with little positive impact from hawkish Fed and weighed by recent talks about higher tariff plan. Bulls were strongly rejected on Wednesday after rally stalled just ahead of key Fibo barrier at 112.18 (61.8% of 113.17/110.58 bear-leg) and subsequent strong pullback left long-legged daily Doji candle. Near-term risk is skewed lower, supported by weakening momentum and daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bear-cross, but comments from US President Trump could be the key trigger for dollar’s weakness, as his recent ‘verbal interventions’ managed to lower the greenback in several occasions. Stronger downside risk could be expected on break below 10SMA (111.33) which would signal formation of lower top (112.15) and risk slide towards key 111.58 support (26 July trough). Alternatively, break and close above 112.18 Fibo barrier is needed to neutralize bears and signal bullish continuation of bull-leg from 110.58. US jobs data tomorrow could generate stronger direction signals.
Res: 111.73, 112.18, 112.56, 113.17
Sup: 111.38, 111.22, 110.73, 110.58
