The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research release an article “Prospects for the UK Economy” yesterday. It warned that the economy is “facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit”. Such “uncertainty primarily stems from the yet to be defined relationship between the UK and the EU”, as well as “the economy’s response to the new framework once it emerges.” And it criticized Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit white paper for failing to “unite the government or Parliament”, thus ” leaving open an entire spectrum of possible outcomes.”
The NIESR conditioned its economic forecast with a 25bps BoE rate hike this month, that is, tomorrow. That’s also under the assumption of a “soft Brexit”. The economic is expected to grow at potential with GDP up 1.4% this year, and 1.7% next year. But “risks to our GDP growth forecast are wider than before and tilted to the downside.”
NIESR also urged BoE to take account of the uncertainty of Brexit when setting policy and “also weigh the consequences of ‘getting it wrong’.” That is, it urged BoE to “stand ready to move in either direction should circumstances change.” BoE should “emphasise the uncertainty (rather than the certainty) of its future policy stance in its communications and its willingness to reverse its decisions.”
