ECB released the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) today. On Eurozone inflation, SPF respondents raised their headline HICP inflation forecast to 1.7% in 2018 (from 1.5%) , 1.7% in 2019 (from 1.6%) and 1.7% in 2010 (unchanged). They now matched Eurosystem staff projection of 1.7% through 2018 to 2020.
On Core HICP inflation, SPF projections were unchanged at 1.2% in 2018, 1.5% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. That compares to Eurosystem staff forecasts of 1.1% in 2018, 1.6% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. That is, SPF respondents expect faster pickup in core inflation in 2018 but the slowed the rise slows quickly.
On growth, SPF respondents revised down GDP forecast to 2.2% in 2018 (from 2.4%), 1.9% in 2019 (from 2.0%) and 1.6% in 2020 (unchanged). That compares to Eurosystem staff projections of 2.1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.
