Despite falling sharply to 0.7401 in early 2015, the subsequent quick and strong rebound retained our view that further consolidation above major low at 0.7069 (2011 low) would take place and mild upside bias remains for the erratic rise from there (wave v as well as larger degree wave (C) trough) to bring major correction of intermediate downtrend from 1.8222 (Wave (B) top), hence further gain to 1.0350, then 1.0500 would be seen, next upside target is 1.0620-30 (100% projection of 0.7069-1.0296 measuring from 0.7401), however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0800 and 1.1000 should hold on first testing. Looking ahead, the greenback shall head towards 1.1320-30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire wave (B) from 1.8222-0.7069) but previous 4th at 1.1731 should remain intact.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.0100 and 1.0010-20 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9900 and 0.9800 should hold, bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Below 0.9800 would defer and suggest a temporary top is formed instead, risk weakness to 0.9700 but only a sustained breach below support at 0.9550 would signal the corrective rise from 0.7069 low has ended and bring further fall to support at 0.9444, having said that, only a firm break below there would shift risk to the downside and further fall to 0.9300, then 0.9200 would follow but psychological support at 0.9000 should hold from here.
