AUD/USD – 0.7534
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Despite yesterday’s initial strong rebound to 0.7592, the subsequent retreat has retained our view that further consolidation would take place and weakness towards 0.7491 cannot be ruled out, however, break of support at 0.7473 is needed to signal recent decline from 0.7750 has resumed and extend weakness to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750) but reckon downside would be limited to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.7565-70 and said resistance at 0.7592 should hold. Only break of said resistance at 0.7611 would signal low has been formed at 0.7473, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7650 but resistance at 0.7680 should hold from here, price should falter below 0.7700-10, bring another decline later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
