STOCKS
Dow (25019.41, +0.38%) and Dax (12540.73, +0.38%) have risen about 0.38% and looks bullish just now with an upside target of 25250 and 12800 respectively.
Nikkei (22597.35, +1.85%) is trading just below important resistance near 22800 and while that holds, Nikkei could come off in the next few sessions towards 22200. A break above 22800 is necessary to indicate bullishness for the near term.
Shanghai (2808.79, -0.79%) is quiet for the last 2-sessions. A break above 2850 would take the index towards 2900+ levels. But while it remains below 2850, downside chances of re-testing 2750 or lower cannot be negated.
Nifty (11018.90, -0.039%) saw a slight dip on Friday from levels below 11100. Resistance at 11150 on the daily candles may hold in the near term, pushing the index back towards 10900. For now, immediate upside could be limited near 11150-11200 levels.
COMMODITIES
Brent (74.84, -0.65%) has bounced from support as seen on the daily candles and while that holds, Brent is bullish towards 78-79 in the near term. Nymex WTI (70.60, -0.58%) on the other hand has room on the downside but could be pulled up towards 73 on a rise in Brent.
Gold (1242.40, +0.10%) is trading near important support near 1240. While that holds, the price could be stable near current levels for some more time before eventually moving higher in the medium to longer term. A break below 1240, if seen would make it vulnerable to a test of 1230-1225 on the downside.
Copper (2.7795, +0.14%) has immediate resistance near 2.875-2.900 and if that holds, the price could fall back to 2.80 or lower in the near term. A sustained break above 2.90 is required for Copper to pick up upside momentum for the near to medium term.
FOREX
Euro (1.1682): As per our expectation, Euro broke below the 21 days MA near 1.165 on Friday but is again trading above it currently. Another week of range trade between 1.175-1.16 could follow now. The 1st part of this week could see an upmove towards 1.175 followed by a dip to 1.16 in the latter part.
Dollar Index (94.73): Dollar Index has dipped from resistance (earlier support trendline) near 95 on daily candles. A dip towards support near 94.0-94.2 (in the channel being formed on daily candles) is possible in the early part of this week.
Dollar Yen (112.49): After having risen decisively past long term resistance near 112 last week, Dollar Yen is looking bullish in the coming 1-2 weeks. With sustained bullishness, it could test levels near 114 by next week (where it could find some resistance). Higher than that, there is also some resistance near 115. Dips could be restricted at max till 111.5. The bias remains bullish in this week.
Euro Yen (131.42): Euro Yen also breached crucial resistance last week near 130 and is now looking bullish for the next couple of weeks. However there are chances of some pause in the 131.5-132.0 zone since there could be some temporary resistance here. If it moves past this zone, then a test of horizontal resistance near 133.5 is possible by next week. Near term bullishness might be capped till 135 (long term resistance on weekly line chart).
Pound (1.3236): After testing 1.31 on Friday, Pound could test 1.33 in today’s session again and then dip towards 1.305 later in the week. Levels near 1.305 are a crucial support zone, which when broken, could make Pound very bearish.
Dollar Rupee (68.525): Dollar rupee likely to hold above support at 68.25/30 and rise back to 68.70 this week.
INTEREST RATES
Lower than expected growth in US CPI m-o-m seems to be taking precedence over the record y-o-y growth figures as yields have dipped after the release. US Retail Sales data is to be released today, which could be another important trigger for yields. In May, the release of higher than expected Retail Sales figures had led to the US 10 Year yield testing a high near 3.125%. Let’s see if the release this time can also impact yields as significantly this time.
US 10 year yield (2.827%), 30 Year (2.93%), 5 Year (2.725%), 2 Year (2.578%):
US 10 Year yield trading towards the lower end of the horizontal support zone of 2.84%-2.82%. If Retail sales data comes below the expected 0.4% growth, we could just see a break below 2.82% to target 2.8%.
US 10 year – Japanese 10 Year yield spread (2.79%) has broken below support on medium term chart and could become bearish towards 2.7%. Given that the Japanese 10 Year yield might not rise beyond 0.05%, this could indicate that a dip to 2.7% is very likely for the US 10 Year yield in the weeks to come.
