The pair is back to red in early Friday’s trading, after two day recovery rally showed signs of stall after peaking at 109.47 and being unable to close above falling 10SMA (currently at 109.16).
Near-term risk is turning again towards 200SMA (108.88), return below which would weaken near-term structure.
Overall bias remains shifted lower as daily technicals are negative and last week’s long bearish candle weighs heavily on the market.
The pair may hold in extended consolidation before fresh attack at this week’s low at 108.11 and extension of broader downtrend an break below 108.11 and next target at 107.84 (Fibo 61.8% retracement of Jun/Dec 2016 101.17/118.65 rally).
Alternative scenario requires strength through psychological 110.00 barrier at 110.20 (falling 20SMA) to neutralize immediate downside threats and signal stronger correction of 111.56/108.11 downleg.
Res: 109.47, 109.84, 110.00, 110.20
Sup: 108.88, 108.63, 108.30, 108.11
