US oil holding within narrow daily cloud (spanned between ($50.74 and $51.15) following bounce from Wednesday’s spike low at $ 50.06.
Strong bearish acceleration on Wednesday extended pullback from $50.74 (12 Apr recovery high) and probed below important support at $50.41 (daily Kijun-sen line) and approached psychological $50.00 level. Fall was accelerated by lower than expected draw in oil inventories which showed 1 million barrels draw in the week ending 12 Apr, compared to 1.5 million barrels draw forecast.
In addition, increased production of US shale oil continues to undermine attempts of OPEC to stabilize and boost oil prices by reducing production.
Wednesday’s long bearish daily candle weighs on markets, as oil price was firmly in red for past three days, with weakening daily studies supporting negative scenario.
Corrective bounce is seen limited and should ideally remain under broken 55SMA at $51.55, with extended upticks to be capped by broken 100SMA / daily Tenkan-sen at $51.85/90, ahead of fresh leg lower.
Key supports at $50.00 and $49.62 (Fibo 61.8% of $47.07/$53.74 rally) remain in near-term focus, with sustain break lower to confirm an end of recovery phase from $47.07 and expose next strong support at $48.96 (200SMA).
Res: 51.32, 51.55, 51.90, 52.34
Sup: 50.87, 50.00, 49.62, 48.96
