AUD/USD – 0.7555
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
Original strategy :
Bought at 0.7525, Target: 0.7680, Stop: 0.7465
Position: – Long at 0.7525
Target: – 0.7680
Stop: – 0.7465
New strategy :
Exit long entered at 0.7525
Position: – Long at 0.7525
Target: –
Stop:-
Although aussie rose briefly to 0.7611 yesterday, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and downside risk has increased for weakness to 0.7500, however, only break of last week’s low at 0.7473 would signal the decline from 0.7750 top has resumed and extend weakness to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750) but oversold condition should limit downside to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
In view of this, would be prudent to exit long entered at 0.7525 and stand aside for now. Above said resistance at 0.7611 would revive bullish view that low has been formed at 0.7473 last wee, bring further gain towards resistance at 0.7680 but break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal the fall from 0.7750 has ended, bring further gain to 0.7700-10 first.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
