STOCKS
Slight recovery seen in most indices. But we need price confirmation to say that the corrective phase is over. Else there could be some more downside possibility in the near term.
Dow (20636.92, +0.90%) has bounced back from support near 20410 negating an immediate fall towards 20000. However, a break above 20800 is needed to take the index higher in the near term. While below 20800, we may expect movement in the 20800-20410 region.
Dax (12109, -0.38%) was closed for Easter Monday yesterday. We will have to see price action near support levels of 12100 to see the next course of direction. A bounce towards 12220 is possible in the coming sessions.
Shanghai (3223.87, +0.05%) continues to trade in the lower end of the broad 3300-3175 region. A bounce back towards 3250 and higher is possible in the coming sessions.
Nikkei (18398.24, +0.23%) has bounced from 18200 and could re-test the earlier support turned resistance near 18650. In case some rejection is seen from 18650, Nikkei could come off towards 18200-18000 levels again in the near term. But note 3-day support on the line charts which indicates that there could be some upside potential also in the near term.
Levels near 9100-8900 is very crucial to hold Nifty (9139.30, -0.13%) at higher levels and produce a bounce back in the medium term. For now, we may allow for a fall towards 9000-8900 in the near term but will have to keep a close watch on the price action near those levels.
COMMODITIES
Muted price action was seen in Bullion as traders are possibly in a pause mode and closely watching the geo-political scenario. Any negative surprise could trigger volatility into the markets.
Gold (1286) has closed at slightly lower levels from the crucial resistance of 1305. We continue to look for a bounce beyond 1305 levels in the near term. But before that gold may spend a few sessions within the 1265-1305 regions to overcome from its near term overbought condition.
Silver (18.36) has tested immediate support near 18.30 before closing slightly higher. A break below 18.30 could take it down to 17.70. Overall we need to wait for confirmation on a break on either side of the 18.30-18.65 region for immediate directional clarity.
Copper (2.58) has been stuck in the range of 2.55-2.70, with a pivot at 2.61. If copper could not trade above 2.61, it could fall towards 2.55 regions again. In the medium term 2.53-55 are going to be a strong support but a close below that could open up 2.50 and 2.45 levels respectively.
Brent (55.30) and WTI (52.59) have fallen from their resistance levels of 56.80 and 53 and trading within the range of 55-56.80 for Brent and 51.70-53 for WTI respectively. The trend is still bullish in the near to medium term time frame while they are within their respective ranges. Any corrective fall may face buying pressure at the lower levels. Only a fresh weekly rise in U.S. drilling activity could keep a lid on the bullish momentum.
FOREX
Dollar strength has been embraced by the US Treasury secretary, contrary to the view of the US president but that has helped Dollar to hold its ground and weaken Yen.
Dollar Index (100.26) has been consolidating in the narrow range of 100.00-50 for the last 4 sessions which may continue for another couple of sessions. Only a move above 100.70-85 can extend the rise to the major resistance at 101.30-40. Major support remains unchanged at 99.80.
In a similar way, Euro (1.0650) has been stuck in the range of 1.0600-80 for the last 4 sessions with no clear directional bias. Wait for a breakout from the broader range of 1.0550-1.0700 for a trending move but the sideways consolidation may continue for the week.
Dollar Yen (108.98) has bounced sharply from our support of 108.25 and now it requires a break above 109.25-40 to confirm an upside reversal. In case of a successful break above 109.25-40, higher level of 110.00 and 111.50 may come into consideration.
Pound (1.2565) remains almost unchanged near the major resistance of 1.2600-40. As discussed yesterday, while expecting the currency to oscillate in the range of 1.2350-1.2640 for the next few days, we may keep in mind the larger timeframe bullish possibility as a break above 1.2640 may signal a rise towards 1.2800.
Aussie (0.7560) rose above the resistance of 0.7595 for a brief moment before it came down in a correction. Still, another leg up towards 0.7640-75 may be pending if the immediate support of 0.7525 holds.
Dollar-Rupee (64.51) has shows intent to test the higher end of the near term range of 64.20-70 but no signs of any immediate breakout from the range is visible yet.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields may try to test the immediate support turned resistance levels in the next couple of sessions. In case it manages to break above the immediate support levels, we could see a rise towards 3.0-3.1% on the 30Yr yield and 2.45 on the 10Yr yield in the near term; else another leg of rejection may be anticipated in the near term.
The German yields look bearish for the near term. The 5Yr 9-0.52%), 10Yr (0.19%) and the 30YR (0.92%) are all trading low.
The UK yields are almost stable but look bearish for the coming sessions, the 10-5Yr (0.534%) may head towards 0.40% in the medium etrm.
