EUR/GBP’s fall from 0.8786 resumed last week by taking out 0.8483 and reaches as low as 0.8466. Near term bearish outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 0.8303 could be completed at 0.8786. Fall from 0.8786 could be developing as the third leg of the correction from 0.9304. Deeper fall is anticipated through 0.8303 support.
Initial bias in EUR/GBP is now on the downside this week for 0.8402 support. Firm break there should confirm our bearish view and target target 0.8303 and below. At this point, we’d expect front support from 0.8116/20 cluster support to contain downside and complete the correction from 0.9304. On the upside, break of 0.8589 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Such decline is likely ready to resume and should make a new low below 0.8303. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.
In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 (2008 high) is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935 (2015 low). Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the correction from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.
