USD/CAD – 1.2411
Â
New strategy            :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
Although current break of 1.2414 support confirms our bearish view that recent decline has resumed and may extend weakness to 1.2340, then 1.2310-15, oversold condition should limit downside and reckon current wave v would be limited to 1.2250-60 and price should stay above 1.2200-10, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place next week. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction possibly ended at 1.2778, wave v should extend towards 1.2300.
In view o this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above 1.2445-50 would bring rebound to 1.2490-00 but break of latter level is needed to signal a temporary low is possibly formed, bring further gain to 1.2530-35 and then 1.2570-75 but upside should be limited to 1.2600 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.2663.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.
