USD/CAD – 1.2725
Trend:Â Down
Â
Original strategy      :
Sell at 1.2825, Target: 1.2625, Stop: 1.2885
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop: –
Â
New strategy            :
Sell at 1.2825, Target: 1.2625, Stop: 1.2885
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
Although the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.2778 yesterday, reckon support at 1.2652 would limit downside and near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 1.2414 low to extend gain to 1.2800, however, as this move is still viewed as retracement of recent decline (tentatively wave iv), reckon upside would be limited to 1.2825-35 and bring retreat later, below 1.2650-55 would suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 1.2600 but break of support at 1.2553 is needed to provide confirmation, bring further fall to 1.2500 first. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii possibly ended at 1.2414, hence wave iv correction is underway.
In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now and look to sell on further subsequent rebound as 1.2825-30 should limit upside. Above 1.2880-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii) would abort and signal a temporary low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2940-50 but price should falter below 1.2990-95 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring retreat later this week.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.
