USD/CAD - 1.2710
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway with wave iii ended at 1.4690, wave v of C may bring one more marginal rise probably in 2018
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.2770, Target: 1.2570, Stop: 1.2830
New strategy :
Sell at 1.2800, Target: 1.2600, Stop: 1.2860
Dollar’s intra-day initial rise to 1.2753 suggests near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 1.2414 (tentatively wave iv) to extend gain to 1.2771 (previous resistance as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii), however, reckon upside would be limited and renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.2800, bring retreat later, below 1.2670-75 would bring test of 1.2625-30, break there would suggest top is possibly formed but below 1.2540-50 is needed to add credence to this view and suggest the rebound from 1.2414 has ended instead, bring further fall to 1.2490-00, having said that, reckon support at 1.2451 would hold on first testing. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii possibly ended at 1.2414, hence wave iv correction is underway.
In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now and look to sell on further subsequent rebound as 1.2800-10 should limit upside. Above 1.2800-10 would defer and risk a stronger correction to 1.2850, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.2880-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii) and bring retreat later next week.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.