AUD/USD – 0.7873
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.8030, met target at 0.7880
Position: – Short at 0.8030
Target:Â – 0.7880
Stop: –
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
As aussie has fallen again after brief recovery to 0.7943, adding credence to our bearishness and our short position entered at 0.8030 finally met our downside target at 0.7880 (with 150 points profit), outlook remains mildly bearish for the erratic fall from 0.8066 top to bring retracement of recent rise in wave iv, hence weakness to 0.7839 (previous resistance tuned support) is likely, however, downside should be limited to 0.7786 and price should stay well above wave i top at 0.7712.
As we have taken profit on our short position entered at 0.8030, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.7940-45 and bring another decline later. Only break of indicated resistance at 0.7980 would suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 0.8000, then towards 0.8043 resistance, break there would signal the pullback from 0.8066 top has ended instead, bring retest of this level first. We are keeping our latest bullish count that recent impulsive waves is unfolding as (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) and may extend headway towards 0.8150.Â
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
