AUD/USD – 0.7618
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Exit long entered at 0.7595
Position: - Long at 0.7595
New strategy :
Sell at 0.7650, Target: 0.7500, Stop: 0.7690
Yesterday’s selloff suggests suggests top has possibly been formed at 0.7712 and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of 0.7575-80, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.7535 support, break there would extend further fall towards 0.7500 which is likely to hold from here due to near term oversold condition.
In view of this, we are looking to sell aussie on recovery as 0.7650 should limit upside. Above 0.7683 resistance would abort and suggest the retreat from 0.7712 has ended instead, bring retest of this level first, then towards 0.7750.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.