Trade Idea: GBP/JPY – Hold short entered at 143.65

GBP/JPY – 142.60

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Sold at 143.65, Target: 141.65, Stop: 144.00

Position: – Short at 143.65
Target: – 141.65
Stop: – 144.00

New strategy :

Hold short entered at 143.65, Target: 141.65, Stop: 143.45

Position: – Short at 143.65
Target:  – 141.65
Stop:- 143.45

Sterling met renewed selling interest at 143.95 and the pair has slipped on Friday, retaining our bearishness and below 141.85-90 would signal the rebound from 141.50 has ended, bring retest of this level. Looking ahead, below said support at 141.50 would extend the selloff from 148.10 top to 141.00 but loss of momentum should limit downside to 140.50-55 and price should stay above psychological support at 140.00, bring rebound later. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 143.65. Above 143.40 would risk another test of 143.95-00, however, only break there would signal low has been formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 144.50 but upside would still be limited to 145.00 and price should falter well below said resistance at 145.45, bring another decline later.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.