GBP/JPY – 144.25
Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.
Trend: Near term up
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
Sterling has remained confined within recent established range and although weakness to 143.75-80 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited and previous support at 143.37 should hold, bring rebound later. Only a drop below this level would signal the decline from 148.11 top has resumed for correction of early upmove to 143.00, then 142.30-35 which is likely to hold from here.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 144.70-75 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 145.10 and resistance at 145.39 should hold from here. Only a break of this level would revive near term bullishness for the rebound from 143.37 to extend gain to resistance at 145.90-95, having said that, break there is needed to confirm low has been formed, bring a stronger rebound to 146.30-35 but resistance at 147.10 should remain intact, bring retreat later.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.

