AUD/USD – 0.7521
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
New strategy :
Aussie’s retreat after meeting resistance at 0.7611 earlier this week suggests consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.7485-90, however, a break of indicated previous support at 0.7473 is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 0.7750 top to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750) but oversold condition should limit downside to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above 0.7560-65 would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to 0.7600 but break of said resistance at 0.7611 is needed to revive bullishness, bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 0.7680 which is likely to hold from here.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.