Weekly 

   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
   •   Time of formation: 13 Mar 2017
   •   Trend bias: Down


Daily


   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern
   •   Time of formation: 16 Feb 2017
   •   Trend bias: Near term down




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Although the Australian dollar opened higher this week and rose to as high as 83.95 earlier this week, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 84.37) and bring retreat later, a daily close below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 82.72) would bring test of 82.00 but break of latter level is needed to signal the rebound from 81.49 low has ended, bring retest of this level later. A drop below this level would extend recent decline from 88.15 top to support at 81.10-15, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 80.00 psychological support would hold from here, bring rebound later.
On the upside, whilst initial marginal recovery cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 84.30) would limit upside and bring another decline to aforesaid downside targets. Only a daily close above resistance at 84.41 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 85.00-10 but said resistance at 85.75 should remain intact, bring another decline later.Â


Recommendation: Hold short entered at 83.65 for 81.65 with stop above 84.65.


On the weekly chart, after finding support at 81.49 last week, aussie found good support there and has rebounded, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen, however, still reckon upside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 84.50) and bring another decline later, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 82.49) would bring weakness to 82.00 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 81.49 has ended, bring retest of this level later. A drop below this level would extend the fall from 88.15 top to support at 81.10-15, a weekly close below there would retain bearishness and suggest the rise from 72.50 has ended, then further fall to 80.50 and possibly psychological support at 80.00 would follow.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 84.50) and bring another decline. A weekly close above this level would suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 85.00, then towards resistance at 85.75 but only break there would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring further subsequent gain to 86.00 and then 86.50-60, however, price should falter below resistance at 87.50.
