EUR/JPY jumped to 131.69 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Another rise is expected as long as 129.65 minor support holds. Above 131.69 will extend the larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 122.39 to 131.39 from 127.55 at 133.11 next. However, break of 129.65 will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 127.55 support instead.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that rise from 109.03 is completed and turn outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, at this point, there is no clear indication that rise from 109.03 is resuming that from 94.11. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping below 149.76 to extend range trading. Nonetheless, firm break of 149.76 will indicates strong underlying buying. In such case, EUR/JPY will target 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68.
