Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7479; (P) 0.7509; (R1) 0.7555; More…
AUD/USD’s rebound form 0.7439 extends higher today. But it’s limited below 0.7609 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we’re favoring the case that rise from 0.7158 has completed at 0.7748 already. And deeper decline is expected. Break of 0.7439 will turn bias to the downside and target a test on 0.7144/7158 support zone. At this point, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence we’ll be cautious on strong support from0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7609 will argue that the fall from 0.7748 has completed. In such case, bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7748 resistance.
In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8118) and above.
